PM Modi declare at one of the rally that not only will the National Democratic Alliance win over 400 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but the Bharatiya Janata Party alone will win over 370 seats.
As PM Modi said that to achieve this, all voters would have to do was, figure out the BJP’s vote count at their polling booths in the last three elections, then note down the elections when the BJP won the most votes there and ensure a tally of 370 votes more than that number at that polling booth.
If voters achieve this, then the BJP would cross the 370 seat mark pakka, said PM Modi.
As PM Modi’s “370 extra votes for 370 Lok Sabha seats” does have a numeric flair to it, is it a feasible strategy?
But as per RRD’s Opinion, if BJP wants to cross 370 seats, it has to ensure following things :
Happy NDA’s Strongholds
BJP is to maintain the NDA’s strongholds in the 12 states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Goa with Jammu and Union Territories.
The NDA had a strike rate of 94% in these regions in the last Lok Sabha elections, winning 198 of the 210 seats.
Keep Improving
BJP is to focus on the scope for improvements.
As 11 regions likes of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Kerala, Telangana, Assam, Punjab, Kashmir and northeastern states where the NDA can increase its seats.
The alliance has a strike rate of only 40% in these regions.
It needs to increase the strike rate to 57% to win 161 of the 285 seats.
Government in Maharashtra
BJP had won 23 seats and the Shiv Sena get 18 seats in Maharashtra in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
NDA had secure 41 of the 48 seats on offer at a strike rate of 85%.
So, the Shiv Sena and the BJP part ways afterwards and Shiv Sena has since divided into two parts.
So, it will be important for BJP to keep the Maharashtra party’s 18 seats in the NDA.
Rahul Ram Dwivedi (RRD) is a senior journalist in 2YoDoINDIA.
NOTE : Views expressed are personal.
